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The Learning CurveEvery doubling makes it cheaper

Front

How Things Get Made0124

The Learning Curve

Every doubling makes it cheaper

The rule that cost falls a fixed share each time output doubles.

III · The Machinery21 / 53

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0124 · The Primer21 / 53

Solar panels cost roughly a hundred times less per watt than in the 1970s. That was not one breakthrough. It followed a curve: every time the total ever built doubled, the price fell by about a fifth. Batteries, LEDs, and aircraft did the same thing. Volume is what makes a thing cheap, and volume takes time.

  • This is why early buyers of any technology overpay. They are funding the doublings that make it affordable for everybody who comes after them.
  • It also explains what never gets cheap. Anything built once, on a new site, never reaches the repetitions that would teach the process.
SourceWright (1936), learning curve research
Way et al
(2022), energy cost forecasting

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